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He doesn't have many friends in caucus but that isn't going to matter so much this time around.

Under Labour's new rules MPs can't stitch up deals hair restoration
.

They're going to have a 40 per cent say in who gets the top job, party members get 40 per cent and unions 20 per centbolt embroidery.

Cunliffe has stronger support within the party and unions than deputy leader Grant Robertson, who is likely to be his only serious opponent.

When David Shearer beat Cunliffe in a caucus vote after the 2011 election, the party decided enough was enough and it would be the last time MPs ruled that particular roost.

So it changed the rules at the next annual conference.

Cunliffe may be a vastly ambitious man who admits he has a big ego and doesn't get on well with his colleagues.

But he's passionate, driven, highly articulate and capable of taking on John Key in those vital one-on-one debates in next year's election campaign.

He's MP for New Lynn and, like Key, has an Auckland power base.

Robertson is a clever politician who knows the corridors of power very well.

He was one of Helen Clark's most senior advisers while she was prime minister and he's a top strategist.

He's a good speaker, far more effective in parliament than Shearer was.

But he's a Wellington-focused, beltway politician.

And he's gay.

Labour's former president Mike Williams, the most experienced campaign manager in New Zealand, says sexual orientation shouldn't be a factor but it is.

He says it would be "something to take account of" if he was running a campaign.

Labour can win or lose elections on the big Pacific Island vote in South Auckland.

Its Mangere MP Su'a William Sio broke ranks over the gay marriage bill and warned his colleagues Labour was going to lose the traditional support of his morally conservative constituents.

He might be thinking about how they would react to the prospect of New Zealand having a gay prime minister.

Although the new rules favour Cunliffe, there's one scenario within them that could defeat him.

There's speculation Robertson will try to persuade Andrew Little, a possible third contender, to run as his deputy.

Little isn't considered to have a realistic chance of winning the leadership because he's a first term MP and hasn't made much of an impact.

But he's steeped in the union movement and until he became an MP he was the president of the EPMU, New Zealand's largest union which is affiliated to the Labour Party.

If a majority of the caucus sides with Robertson and most party members vote for Cunliffe, the unions could decide the election by putting all 20 per cent of their vote behind a Robertson/Little ticket.

The party will have to be very wary of this situation developing because it would play into the government's hands.

National's campaign cry would be "trade unions have decided who should be New Zealand's next prime minister".

As for Shearer, he's going to be on leave for the next three weeks and isn't taking calls.

Sources say he's emotionally worn out needs a break.

He'll soon start feeling better.

Politicians describe being leader of the opposition as the worst job in parliament, and Phil Goff did it for three years.

Then he lost an election, badly, and announced he was standing down.

A few days later he was asked how he felt.

"Bloody marvellous, actually," he replied.

A 3News-Reid Research poll, released on Sunday, sees Labour's support drop 2.1 points to 31 per cent, while National picks up that ground and more otter case, rising 2.4 points to 49.5 per cent - a result that would enable it to govern alone.

The Greens were unchanged on 12 per cent while NZ First picked up 1.7 points, rising to 3.9 per cent - but still below the five per cent threshold needed to return to parliament.

Asked how party leaders were performing, Prime Minister John Key lost a few points - 52 per cent of voters think he's performing well, down three points, while 32.2 per cent think he's doing a poor job, up 1.9 per cent.

He's on 42 per cent support at preferred prime minister, up 1.3 on the last poll in May.

Mr Shearer's results are significantly worse.

Just 26.1 per cent of voters think he's doing a good job, fr4 pcb shedding 10.1 points, while 43.3 per cent think he's doing poorly, up seven points - although he's up 1.6 points to 12.1 per cent as preferred prime minister.

The poll was taken after Mr Shearer demanded Labour's party leadership drop the controversial "man ban" proposal which would see women-only candidates in some seats to boost female representation.

He admits the issue has been a distraction.

"It's a wakeup call for us. People want us to be focused on the issues that affect them and not on Labour Party internal issues," Mr Shearer said.

The latest result comes as Labour's caucus heads into a two-day retreat, where Mr Shearer could face a grilling from his MPs - or they could again look at a potential leadership challenge label sticker, as the 2014 general election ticks ever closer.

Renewed speculation of a challenge has been swirling since a poor poll result for Labour in June.